Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
