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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still