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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.